A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
